将影响锅炉热力性能的热工参数和包括制造误差、安装误差在内的结构参数视为设计变量，应用数理统计和概率论分别给出了确定设计变量分布的计算方法和锅炉达到额定蒸发量时的概率算法，同时进行了工程实例的计算和分析。结果表明，采用本文法后的锅炉达到额定蒸发量的概率下降很多，为此本文提出了改进锅炉设计和优化达到额定蒸发量概率的设计和计算方法。本算法更符合工程实际，拓宽了锅炉热力性能的评价方法。

The thermotechnical parameters and the structural parameters including the fabrication and installation errors,which affect the boiler thermal performance,were considered as design variables.The methods of calculating the distribution of design variables and the probability of achieving the boiler rated evaporating capacity were determined by means of mathematical statistics and probability theory.Meanwhile,the calculation and analysis for an engineering example were also carried out.The results showed that the probability for the boiler to achieve the rated evaporation decreased a lot after adopting the method in this paper.Then the design and calculation methods of design improvement and optimization for boiler to achieve the rated evaporation probability were put forward.The presented method is more in line with the engineering facts,thereby broadening the methodology of evaluating boiler thermodynamic performance.

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